I first came across the concept of the Stockdale paradox after reading Jim Collins famous book “Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap… and Others Don’t”. For a more comprehensive analysis of the Stockdale Paradox please check out this link and read about it in Collin’s own words. All quotes I am using in this blog are taken from this interview between Collins and Stockdale.
Simplifying greatly, Admiral Jim Stockdale was a US military officer imprisoned in Vietnam during the Vietnam war. He was able to endure some horrific torture under inhumane conditions but still emerge from this experience mentally tougher than he had gone in. The below is the most important quote I believe when telling the story of the Stockdale paradox. He was asked who were the people who fared the worst in the prison camp and this was his answer during his interview with Jim Collins…
He said, “Oh, it’s easy. I can tell you who didn’t make it out. It was the optimists.”
And I said, “I’m really confused, Admiral Stockdale.”
He said, “The optimists. Yes. They were the ones who always said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ Christmas would come and it would go. And there would be another Christmas. And they died of a broken heart.”
As a naturally optimistic person this really hit me hard. Surely we have to believe that tomorrow will be better than yesterday? But the below quote tells you Stockdale’s response…
“This is what I learned from those years in the prison camp, where all those constraints just were oppressive. You must never ever ever confuse, on the one hand, the need for absolute, unwavering faith that you can prevail despite those constraints with, on the other hand, the need for the discipline to begin by confronting the brutal facts, whatever they are. We’re not getting out of here by Christmas.”
Basically what we can learn from Admiral Stockdale is that optimism is important. It is the ability to believe that the situation will be better in the future. However, this must be tempered with the absolute reality that you are facing right now. The Stockdale paradox inspires me and is a way of thinking I wish to adapt as I build my life and career. Things will be better in the future, but let’s not lose sight of our current reality.
I often think of Zimbabwe my beloved country of citizenship and South Africa my beloved country of residence. There has been so much rhetoric around both countries being open for business and investment. At some point the South African President spoke at length during the State of the Nations address about building a smart city.
In a nation with unreliable electricity supply, poor education and soaring unemployment why only earth were we having a discussion about smart cities? Because the President was looking to inspire hope. But had neglected to accept the reality he was facing at the moment. In Zimbabwe we had an opposition politician mention in his campaign that if elected he would introduce a bullet train. In a country without sufficient foreign currency reserves to consistently import food, maintain infrastructure or reliably supply piped water.
In my career I have aspirations to grow, develop and lead businesses. I work towards this every day. However, there are some realities to confront. Am I ready to do what it takes in order to sacrifice my personal wellbeing to get there? Am I anywhere on the pecking order in my own company where this could become a reality? Do I have the capability or intent for entrepreneurship if a corporate career doesn’t work out? Can I handle the conflict required at this level? Of course the answer to all of these is a resounding “yes”. You get the picture.
Overwhelming optimism and confidence have to be tempered by a dose of reality. Never lose sight of the brutal facts around what is really going on. Belief in oneself does not mean lying to yourself.
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